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03/28/2008 - How will Climate Change Affect the Transportation Industry?
While climate change and global warming have recently been receiving lots of attention in the mainstream, there have been few large-scale investigations about its potential impact on transportation. With this in mind, the Transportation Research Board of the National Research Council recently published a 234-page report investigating how climate change could affect the transportation industry and outlining steps transportation planners should take to mitigate its effects.
“The impacts [of climate change] will vary by mode of transportation and region of the country, but they will be widespread and costly in both human and economic terms and will require significant changes in the planning, design, construction, operation, and maintenance of transportation systems,” the report states. Climate change could cause many changes, but the one with the greatest potential impact is the flooding of costal roads, railways, transit systems and runways. Other potential impacts include: increases in very hot days and heat waves, higher Arctic temperatures, rising sea levels, increases in intense precipitation events and increases in hurricane intensity.
The report states that it is “highly likely” that heat extremes and heat waves will occur more often and will be more severe in most regions. As an example, the probability of having five days hotter than 110° F in Dallas will rise from 2 percent in 2007 to 5 percent in 25 years, 25 percent in 50 years and 90 percent by 2099. This could affect the lift-off load limits of trucks and airplanes, and could shorten construction periods because of health concerns. Higher temperatures could also lead to expansion of bridge joints and paved surfaces and could compromise the integrity of pavement and rail track.
Also highlighted was the threat of higher temperatures in northern latitudes. The report warned that as much as 90 percent of the upper layer of permafrost could thaw. This could actually have a positive effect, as it could result in longer ocean transport seasons and more ice-free ports in northern regions. However, melting permafrost could also cause problems on roads, rail beds, bridge supports, pipelines and runway foundation and could also result in shorter seasons for ice roads.
The report finds that it is “virtually certain” that sea levels will continue to rise. Projections range from 7.1 inches to 23.2 inches by 2099. Fifty-three percent of Americans currently live in coastal regions, and many live in the U.S.’s most densely populated cities. This could result in more frequent interruptions of coastal and low-lying roadway travel and rail service, more severe storm surges and could also lead to closings or travel restrictions at many of the countries top 50 airports lying in costal zones. Rising sea levels could also lead to deteriorated transportation infrastructure, flooding of underground tunnels, roads, rail lines and airport runways, and would also cause lower clearance for boats traveling under bridges.
Another likely effect of changing climate is increased precipitation and stronger hurricanes, resulting in closed roads, flooding, flight delays, road washout, landslides and mudslides, bridge instability and more frequent and severe emergency evacuations.
While much of the report outlines the potential impact of climate change, it also recommends several steps that transportation planners should take immediately to begin to mitigate the impact of climate change. “Decisions taken today, particularly those related to the redesign and retrofitting of existing or the location and design of new transportation infrastructure, will affect how well the system adapts to climate change far into the future. Focusing on the problem now should help avoid costly future investments and disruptions to operations,” the report states.
Most recommendations called for increased cooperation and collaboration between all stakeholders, including Federal and local government agencies and the private sector, as well as operators of infrastructure, like ports and airports. The report suggests these stakeholders study their assets to determine “whether, when, and where projected climate changes in their regions might be consequential.” Stakeholders should also incorporate climate change into their long-term plans, facility designs, maintenance practices, operations and emergency response plans.
Transportation planners and engineers were called on to use “more probabilistic” investment analyses and design ways of “trading off the costs of making the infrastructure more robust against the economic costs of failure.”
Many of the government agencies, including the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) and U.S. Geological Survey were urged to work together more closely. Government agencies “should work together to institute a process for better communication among transportation professionals, climate scientists, and other relevant scientific disciplines, and establish a clearinghouse for transportation-relevant climate change information.” In addition, future planning by state and local agencies as well as universities that are used for climate-based decisions should include the needs of transportation decision makers. Government agencies were called on to set up mechanisms to encourage sharing of best practices in dealing with climate change. Greater monitoring of technologies that could provide warnings of upcoming infrastructure failures was also recommended.
The DOT was called upon to take a leadership role to “initiate immediately a Federally funded, multi-agency research program for ongoing reevaluation of existing and development of new design standards as progress is made in understanding future climate conditions and the options available for addressing them.” It was also recommended that the DOT take the lead in developing an interagency working group focused on adaptation.
When planning long-term transportation plans, Federal planning regulations should be expanded beyond the current 20 to 30 years and require collaboration in plan development. The report also recommended that incentives should be developed to encourage regional and multi-state efforts.
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